Energiewende: German Angst or Bold Step Ahead?

Fri, 02 Dec 2011 17:00:37 GMT

Joschka Fischer
Foreign Minister of the Federal Republic of Germany, 1998-2005

Germany is a highly industrialized country and with its recent decision to eliminate nuclear energy, it has the potential to become a model for how a carbon-free economy without nuclear power can prosper. However, the political environment in Germany means it has passed a "point of no return" - nuclear energy will be completely phased out in 2022 while Germany vows to continue to honor its greenhouse gas emissions reductions commitment. For Germany, there is no way back to the energy sources of the 20th Century.

Today, the country faces uncertainty regarding how exactly it will meet its energy needs while facing self-imposed nuclear and emissions constraints. But by creating a "sink or swim" situation, Germany will be forced to innovate and lead. In doing so, Germany seeks to create a huge opportunity for companies and technologies that will help it to master this ambitious energy transformation, or "Energiewende". A regulatory environment that favours cleaner energy sources, advanced storage solutions, better grid structure and management, and improved energy efficiency has the potential to develop into a uniquely innovative marketplace for companies around the world that lead in cutting edge green and clean technologies. A new chapter in German-American cooperation may unlock potential for developing the products of tomorrow and help demonstrate how growth can be uncoupled from emissions without relying on nuclear energy.

Doctoral student Timothy Cronin asks how plants affect our climate

Tue, 26 Apr 2011 21:23:42 GMT

Researchers at the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change describe their research and why it is important

Postdoc Qudsia Ejaz counts indirect emissions from biofuels

Tue, 26 Apr 2011 21:13:50 GMT

Researchers from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change describe their research and why it is important

Research Scientist Erwan Monier examines uncertainty in climate change

Tue, 26 Apr 2011 21:08:00 GMT

Recently promoted from post-doc to research scientist, Dr. Erwan Monier works on quantifying uncertainty in future climate change using model simulations. "There are a lot of things about the earth system that we don't know," explains Erwan, "We have to take uncertainty into account so that we can get at the probability of future climate change." Using tools like the Integrated Global Systems Model (IGSM) framework, Erwan examines potential temperature change ranges based on different emissions scenarios.

For example, Erwan poses questions like: "how probable is it that the US will warm by, say, four degrees by the end of this century?" The Joint Program has done a substantial amount of work on uncertainty in global temperature changes, and Erwan's work continues this line of research on a region by region basis, focusing on specific parts of the world at a time.

"I think this research is very important because this is the type of information that is needed by policy makers so that they can actually make good decisions about what we need to do to reduce climate change," says Erwan. "It's also important for the public, because I think there's a lot of doubts - with these methods you can show that even with a lot of uncertainty, we have ideas of the range of warming that we'll likely see by the end of the century--and you can actually give them numbers."

Erwan and his colleagues also analyze the impact of different policies on future emissions scenarios and the subsequent impact on climate these policies would cause. He is trying to answer questions such as: if specific climate policies are enforced, what will be the expected reduction in emissions, the expected change in temperature, and the expected impacts on climate in terms of such events as floods, droughts, and heat waves?

After running numerous model scenarios and analyzing the data for significant changes in temperature, his preliminary results demonstrate the drastic emissions reductions needed to achieve the 2 degree Celsius target for global warming discussed by policymakers around the world. "Unless we implement really stringent policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, the [2 degree Celsius] target will be very difficult to achieve. The aim is to figure out what we need to do to reach those goals and the challenge is how to translate this information into meaningful action." His research also shows that even if the 2 degree target in global warming was reached, many regions of the world would experience much higher warming than 2 degree Celsius and thus suffer serious environmental consequences.

Erwan finds the chance that his research results will be turned into real action much more likely at MIT. Speaking about his opportunities within the Joint Program, Erwan states "We are not just doing science for science; we are actually aiming at using it for action. I think that is very important. And that is something that, for me, is new. I've never really thought about research scientists interacting with policy makers or people in Washington DC. But there are a lot of people at the Joint Program who have a network of people who are directly influenced by the results that we are getting and can actually do something about it."

Rethinking Climate Change: The Past 150 Years and the Next 100 Years

Thu, 21 Apr 2011 04:00:00 GMT

04/21/2011 4:00 PM Wong AuditoriumJohn Reilly, Co"director of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change; Senior Lecturer, Sloan School of Management ; Kerry Emanuel, '76, PhD '78, Professor of Atmospheric Science; Ronald Prinn, SCD '71, TEPCO Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences; Chris Knittel, William Barton Rogers Professor of Energy Economics, MIT Sloan; School of Management ; Ernest Moniz, Director, MIT Energy Initiative; Sarah Slaughter, 82, SM'87, PhD 91, Associate Director for Buildings & Infrastructure, MIT Energy InitiativeDescription: At a time of great political paralysis around climate change internationally -- and apparent backtracking by American politicians and the public on the science of global warming itself -- there are "reasons to rethink our approach," says moderator John Reilly. He hopes to "create a civil discourse that helps us understand better the varied concerns of people on the topic." Panelists sketch the past, present and future of climate change. Kerry Emanuel reviews the science of climate change, noting that the greenhouse effect discovery dates back to the 18th century, and that by the end of the 19th, scientists had already begun worrying that consumption of fossil fuel and the accompanying release of CO2 would lead to an increase in surface temperatures of 5-6 degrees C. Modern science with its ice core measurements has tracked dramatic temperature changes on earth over tens of millions of years. But the last 100 years have been unprecedented, with the famous hockey stick illustration capturing the connection between human industry and increased CO2 release. When scientists run some models forward, they show temperature increases ranging from 1.5 to 4çC. While these projections contain uncertainty, says Emmanuel, "this does not mean we should do nothing." Diverse climate change reconstructions agree: the warmest years of the past century were 1998, 2005 and 2010. "This is happening in real"time," says Ronald Prinn, and whether or not "Florida has a cold winter," warming is occurring "at a rate that should worry us all." The amount of heat the earth absorbs is simply much greater than it can bounce back into space, courtesy of greenhouse gas already accumulated in the atmosphere, and increasingly, by the secondary impacts of climate change such as the melting of ice sheets. At MIT, Prinn's group runs models that factor in clouds, ocean mixing, and varying levels of greenhouse gas emissions. In a "business as usual" model, with no real efforts to rein in fossil fuel use, Prinn puts the risk of a temperature increase higher than 4çC at 85%. If we manage to stabilize CO2 emissions at 550 parts per million (we're at 472 today), there is still a 25% chance of getting greater than 2çC change. Prinn worries about the instability of the arctic tundra and permafrost, which stores 200 times the amount of current human emissions in carbon, as well as the acidification of oceans, placing plankton, basis of all ocean life, at risk. Against this bleak backdrop, MIT newcomer Chris Knittel describes the policy options for tackling climate change. He acknowledges the "dismal and frustrating science" of environmental economics, which had counted on the equivalent of a carbon tax to discourage carbon emissions, only to meet a wall of political rejection. Carbon pricing lowers demand for the fuel intensive products that matter the most in climate change, and whether in the form of cap and trade, or a direct tax, also spurs technologies aimed at fuel efficiency or encouraging alternative fuels. The nation's fuel standards, set to rise to 35.5 mpg by 2016 are modest, believes Knittel, and subsidies seem to encourage carbon intensive activities rather than reducing them (nb:corn and cellulosic ethanol). States like California are more ambitious, but recent court rulings blocked its cap and trade policy "for environmental justice reasons." "The question is whether we can substantially decrease energy and carbon intensity while accommodating economic growth," says Ernest Moniz. New technologies that emerge must drive the cost of carbon "very, very low" if they are to make a major impact. With cheap coal the primary fuel generating electricity in the U.S., Moniz offers a "Michelin guide type rating" of possible alternative, 'carbon"free' fuels: At the top are renewables such as solar; nuclear; and coal with capture and sequestration. Natural gas doesn't really figure, since it does not wean society effectively from carbon. Moniz believes the best fuel technologies require substantial innovations to bring down their prices. The nuclear industry may want to try small modular reactors of 50"300 megawatts, rather than the 1600 megawatt behemoths that after Fukushima, are even more controversial. Carbon capture and sequestration will require brand new approaches and full"scale testing. Moniz believes solar technology is making the most rapid progress, specifically in silicon photovoltaics, courtesy in part of work in novel materials at MIT. Also, the "global, peanut"sized industry" of batteries may play a "huge role in transforming the picture" of electric vehicles, possibly making them economically feasible in a decade." Sarah Slaughter believes the incredible challenge of climate change might make possible wholesale transformation of infrastructure, energy, and other resource systems. She cites New York City's planning efforts to adapt to sea level rise, which would likely flood the sewer system. All communities must think ahead, for hurricanes, or other disasters likely to flow from warming, but rather than replicate what exists today, says Slaughter, planners should focus on "building the world we want to live in." MIT and its partners around the world hope to develop "ground breaking technologies" to help transform communities and make them safer, and healthier. Slaughter envisions solutions such as district"wide heating and cooling, and describes a system introduced in Kenya that converts agricultural waste into fuel for cooking food. "There is an opportunity to do things right as we move forward," she concludes. About the Speaker(s): Energy, environmental, and agricultural economist John Reilly focuses on understanding the role of human activities as a contributor to global environmental change and the effects of environmental change on society and the economy. A key element of his work is the integration of economic models of the global economy as it represents human activity with models of biophysical systems including the ocean, atmosphere, and terrestrial vegetation. By understanding the complex interactions of human society with our planet, the goal is to aid in the design of policies that can effectively limit the contribution of human activity to environmental change, to facilitate adaptation to unavoidable change, and to understand the consequences of the deployment of large scale energy systems that will be needed to meet growing energy needs.Host(s): School of Science, MIT Energy Initiative

The Role of International Negotiations in Addressing the Climate Challenge

Thu, 21 Apr 2011 04:00:00 GMT

04/21/2011 3:00 PM Wong AuditoriumTodd Stern, US Special Envoy for Climate Change, US Department of StateDescription: With frightening evidence for climate change mounting around the globe, from droughts and massive forest fires to melting glaciers and rising sea levels, you might think nations would wish to work together to meet such a grave threat. Instead, as U.S. climate negotiator Todd Stern reports, there has been only modest progress internationally in facing up to the challenge of climate change. Stern starts by describing the kinds of devastation beginning to ravage the planet and the perils we face as a result. He also acknowledges the shameful drift from fact to opinion among American political leaders when it comes to dealing with the science of climate change, and the companion drop in poll numbers of Americans deeply concerned by the problem. Nevertheless, Stern notes that the Obama administration has remained true to its policy of tackling the problem, focusing on clean energy R&D to transform the economy and cut emissions. He recounts proudly that investments made by the U.S. government are leading to advanced vehicle batteries, electric charging structures over the nation, and a vast increase in energy production from wind, solar and geothermal sources. But progress internationally is much harder to come by. There are deep divisions among nations who gather to discuss the way forward under the umbrella of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC). The main cause of acrimony involves a "firewall" between developed and developing nations, which sprang up in 1992 when the UN began work on an international treaty to reduce global warming. According to Stern, developing nations have approached these climate conventions insisting that legally binding commitments to reducing greenhouse gas emissions fall primarily on developed nations, which are responsible historically for the lion's share of CO2 output. The problem with this argument today, says Stern, is that many of these developing nations have evolved such strong economies in the past decade that they are closing in on developed nations in emissions. Stern believes the U.S. cannot agree to a treaty that doesn't take into account this reality; and that the U.S. must insist instead that certain countries "graduate" from the category of lower to higher emitter when they meet the right criteria, and then assume an appropriate set of obligations. Stern has been involved in international negotiations for a long time, watching the ebb and flow of effort and politics around the climate issue. His hope is that the next UNFCC convention prove "a cooperative and mutually beneficial platform for combating climate change," rather than "a platform focused mostly on rhetorical thrust and parry." About the Speaker(s): Todd Stern plays a central role in developing the U.S. international policy on climate and is the President's chief climate negotiator, representing the United States internationally at the ministerial level in all bilateral and multilateral negotiations regarding climate change. Stern also participates in the development of domestic climate and clean energy policy. Stern brings extensive experience in the private sector and government. Before joining the Obama Administration he was a Senior Fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he focused on climate change and environmental issues, and a partner at the law firm WilmerHale, where he served as Vice Chair of the Public Policy and Strategy Group. Stern served in the White House from 1993 to 1999. As Staff Secretary, he played a central role in preparing the key issues of domestic, economic and national security policy for the President's decision, as well as handling a number of special assignments. From 1997 to 1999, he coordinated the Administration's initiative on global climate change, acting as the senior White House negotiator at the Kyoto and Buenos Aires negotiations. At Treasury, from 1999 to 2001, Stern advised the Secretary on the policy and politics of a broad range of economic and financial issues, and supervised Treasury's anti"money laundering strategy. Previously, from 1990"93, Stern served as Senior Counsel to Senator Patrick Leahy on the Senate Judiciary Committee, where he advised Senator Leahy on intellectual property, telecommunications and constitutional issues. After leaving the government, Stern was an Adjunct Lecturer at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government and a Resident Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Stern is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. Host(s): School of Science, MIT Energy Initiative

Air Pollution Trends and Impacts: Assessing Transportation in Context of Global Change

Tue, 29 Mar 2011 04:00:00 GMT

03/29/2011 4:00 PM Noelle Eckley Selin, Assistant Professor; Engineering Systems Division; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary SciencesDescription: It is a complicated matter mapping the movement of pollution in the atmosphere, but Noelle Eckley Selin models not just the chemistry of the atmosphere as it absorbs emissions and responds to climate change, but its potential impact over time on human health and world economies. She takes a systems approach "to understanding how past, present and future human activities influence pollution, and its impact." Her goal: to provide good science for policy decisions. Selin notes the dominating contribution of motor vehicles to air pollution. Something like 56% of nitrous oxides (NOx) flow from cars and trucks, and more from construction, lawn and garden equipment. These gases form smog and ozone, which constitute a major threat to human health, in the form of increased cases of asthma and cardiovascular disease, she says. The EPA has "ratcheted down" its allowance of permissible NOx emissions, and for particulates, but, Selin says, recent health research "suggests there is no threshold for ozone damages beyond background level." Pollution impact of these gases is a moving target not just in health research, but also around climate change, where ozone and particulates are known "climate forcers." However, says Selin, the feedbacks between climate and emissions are quite complicated, and "a policy win on climate doesn't necessarily mean a win on air pollution." To help achieve "win"win scenarios" addressing both air pollution and climate, Selin and her colleagues are hard at work on a battery of studies that couple methodologies, modeling air pollution impacts on the economy ("looking at how economic activities and choices influence pollution controls;" projecting health effects of ozone and particulates concentrations in 16 global regions; and the negative economic impacts resulting from pollution related health issues. Unlike other work that focuses on running scenarios focused on single topics, Selin says, "We're taking multiple models, to give more of a range of expected outcomes. We're developing ways to deal with scale, uncertainty, and computational issues." Integrating models from the social sciences and atmospheric sciences, and factoring in uncertainties, Selin's group hopes to offer reasonably accurate pictures of impacts globally through mid"century. Studies focused on Europe show economic and health costs of air pollution in the hundreds of billions of dollars, with damages steadily accumulating. Pollution hampers economic growth, and mortality rises as well worldwide. Conversely, vehicle pollution controls, muzzling emissions, can keep economies moving. About the Speaker(s): Noelle Eckley Selin uses atmospheric chemistry modeling to inform decision"making strategies on climate change, and air and mercury pollution. She received her Ph.D. in 2007 from Harvard University in Earth and Planetary Sciences. Prior to that, she was a research associate with the Initiative on Science and Technology for Sustainability at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. She has also been a visiting researcher at the European Environment Agency in Copenhagen, Denmark, and have worked on chemicals issues at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.Host(s): School of Engineering, Transportation@MIT

Master's student Caleb Waugh studies the impact of air pollutant emission policies on the adaptation of alternative vehicles

Thu, 24 Mar 2011 17:20:34 GMT

fall, Caleb Waugh will graduate with a Masters degree from the Technology and Policy Program at MIT. His research focuses on the impact of alternative vehicles--such as hybrid or plug-in hybrid vehicles--on emissions of greenhouse gases and air quality pollutants, and the impact of those emissions on the economy. While at the Joint Program, Caleb worked to develop a framework within the Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to examine air pollutant abatement costs and the kind of policies needed to influence adaptation of alternative vehicles.

"To get some of these alternative technologies adopted, you need policy to provide some sort of an incentive," explains Caleb. "If it is the case that alternative drive-train vehicles really would decrease carbon emissions or air quality emissions in a cost effective manner, then the adoption of those vehicles would be a good thing and it would be nice to know what sort of policy incentives we would need to get them adopted."

The significance of Caleb's research is that it provides a decision-making framework for policymakers. "Instead of just hypothesizing on whether a certain policy will have a certain effect, we can actually go in and conduct a rigorous analysis of a specific policy. In this case, my work will help policymakers or companies and businesses that are interested in adoption of alternative vehicles understand what sort of policy environment they might need for the vehicles to penetrate the market. The results also allow us to see how much these vehicles could reduce emissions."

With Caleb's model developments, researchers will be able to perform integrated assessment ofmany different climate, air pollution, and energy policies simultaneously in a single modeling frameworkIn addition to studying the effects or air pollution policy on alternative vehicle adoption, there are additional benefits to having detailed representation of air pollutant abatement opportunities in the EPPA model, such as the ability to analyze human health benefits of air pollution policy.

With his background in electrical engineering and his strong interests in the economic and environmental impacts of energy, Caleb was a key contributor to Joint Program research. "Working in the Joint Program has been an absolute privilege," Caleb notes. "They are a wonderful group of people. We work hard but we also have a lot of fun... a lot of having a wonderful graduate school experience isn't so much the research as the people that you are working with, and I couldn't think of a better group of people to work with as a graduate student."

Environmental Energy Economist Niven Winchester investigates the economic impacts of climate policies

Thu, 24 Mar 2011 17:16:32 GMT

A visiting scientist since June 2009, Niven Winchester has officially joined the Joint Program as an Environmental Energy Economist. A native of New Zealand, Niven broadly focuses his research on evaluating the economic costs and impacts of climate change policies and new technologies. Currently, he is interested in how climate policies affect what is called 'leakage': the shifting of greenhouse gas emissions from nations with stricter climate policies to countries without climate policies.

One proposed policy option for reducing this 'leakage' is to impose border carbon adjustments, such as tariffs on embodied greenhouse gases. For example, nations with climate policies may place a tax on imported goods to adjust for the greenhouse gases that would have been emitted if the products had been produced domestically. Interested in the effectiveness of this type of policy, Niven is exploring how tariffs actually impact leakage, and at what economic costs (See Report Summary 192 on Page 5).

To examine the effects of policies like carbon tariffs, Niven and his colleagues in the Joint Program employ large-scale models of the world's economy, "building up, layer-by-layer, pieces of information about different aspects of the climate story, about different technologies or different policies" in order to understand how policy changes and technological developments will impact both greenhouse gas emissions and the economy.

Niven's work suggests that carbon tariffs can cause significant economic distortions and may not be good for overall economic activity. Based upon these findings, Niven reasons that encouraging nations without climate policies to adopt minor efficiency actions--rather than imposing carbon tariffs on imported goods from these nations--will likely be a more cost-effective way of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, particularly in developing countries.

Given the lack of political progress on federal climate policies, Niven and his colleagues are now shifting their focus toward analyzing alternative policies, such as bio-fuel mandates and state-level programs. According to Niven, the modeling framework can not only be employed to analyze the impacts of particular technological developments or climate policies, but it also "can be used to look at the impact of climate change if we don't do any action."

Dan Rather Reports - March 1, 2011 - "Power Play"

Fri, 04 Mar 2011 18:31:53 GMT

Meet physics professor Ernest Moniz from The Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dr. Moniz is not just a world-renowned scientist, but also an expert in policy who served in President Clinton's administration and now is on President Obama's council of advisers on science and technology. He says technologies like the prism and small hyperion reactors are interesting, but since we haven't built a nuclear power plant in 30 years, the focus has to be on what we know.

The Green Grease Project

Thu, 17 Feb 2011 22:01:22 GMT

Students from MIT's Biodiesel team organized the Green Grease project to help garbage pickers in Brazil save money and be more environmentally friendly by retrofitting their transport vehicles. In summer 2010, the team traveled to Sao Paulo, Brazil

Economic Policy Challenges: Microeconomics and Regulation

Thu, 27 Jan 2011 05:00:00 GMT

01/27/2011 3:45 PM KresgeNancy L. Rose, PhD '85, Charles P. Kindleberger Professor of Applied Economics, MIT; Dennis W. Carlton, SM '74 PhD '75, Katherine Dusak Miller Professor of Economics,; Booth School of Business, University of Chicago; Richard Schmalensee, '65 PhD '70, Howard W. Johnson Professor of Economics and Management, MIT; Hal Varian, '69, Chief Economist, Google; Mark McClellan, PhD '93, Leonard D. Schaeffer Chair in Health Policy Studies, Brookings InstitutionDescription: Given its contributions to policy and practice in such key sectors as healthcare, industrial organization and technological innovation, and energy and the environment, microeconomics may not be getting the kind of respect, or at least attention, it deserves, these panelists suggest. The field helped "produce a revolution in antitrust thinking" in the U.S., says Dennis Carlton. Since the 1960s, the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission have tapped the talent of dozens of PhD economists, who came up with notions like offering incentives (by way of lower fines and leniency) to those who admit participating in corporate cartels. This "simple idea" led to regulatory policy "with large payoffs," says Carlton. Simulations and modeling help determine whether the government will approve a merger, or step in when corporations become too big. "Emerging hot topics" in antitrust and industrial organization include the use of product bundling; patent law, especially in high tech; control and use of information over the internet; and privacy issues. Richard Schmalensee calls attention to microeconomics' generally unrecognized impact on energy and environmental regulations. For instance, cost benefit analysis was applied to the process of making federal environmental rules, and is now "a bipartisan thing a part of good government." And much of the country moved away from a traditional model of regulating electric utilities, giving greater scope to competition, after some deep economic thinking about incentives. That's the good news. Schmalensee finds it "frankly amazing" and occasionally infuriating how economic thinking has not been applied to energy and environmental policy: the idea of drilling our way to energy independence; and the pursuit of renewable energy as a way of tackling climate change while side"stepping market mechanisms to achieve environmental goals. Schmalensee says he loves "the sun and the wind, but let's get serious." "We live in a time of combinatorial innovation," says Hal Varian, where digital age inventors can combine components in novel ways, across great distances, in real time. Even small companies "can be born global," says Varian, becoming in effect "micro multinationals." Varian sees a transformation of business processes, a "nanoeconomics of the firm," where the highly networked, computerized organization "makes life more efficient." There are hundreds of billions in savings when knowledge workers can instantly track information on the web, he says, and host master copies of work "in the cloud" rather than on paper. Another hallmark of the new organization, exemplified by his company Google, is "experimentation and continuous improvement," accomplished by such technologies as search engines and voice recognition software that learn on the go. Varian sees econometrics as particularly useful in modeling new ventures, and believes that the increasing amount of data generated by the private sector could soon prove useful to the federal government, "enabling a better handle on what's going on in the economy." Economic modeling had a tremendous impact on healthcare reform legislation, and as public debate rages, economic analysis remains essential in determining which policies will prove practicable, says Mark McClellan. Some key questions awaiting evidence and investigation: On the supply side, can changing the way providers get paid (traditionally fee for service) stem rising health care costs? On the demand side, will consumers accept health insurance plans designed around payment tiers intended to reduce use, with greater out of pocket costs for beneficiaries? An instructive model for setting up a system offering choice and cost efficiencies may be the 2006 Medicare prescription drug benefit, which McClellan himself implemented. Seniors overwhelmingly switched to cheaper generic and preferred drugs offered by their plans. While government subsidized, the program "is currently running 40% below actuarial and CBO projections." About the Speaker(s): Nancy Lin Rose is also Director of the National Bureau of Economic Research program in Industrial Organization. Rose's research focuses on the empirical analysis of firm behavior and the economics of regulation. Rose was a faculty member of the MIT Sloan School of Management from 1985"1997, and has been a member of MIT's Department of Economics faculty since 1994. She received the MIT Undergraduate Economics Association Teaching Award in 2000 and 2004. Rose was a Guggenheim Fellow in 2004"2005, a George and Karen McCown Distinguished Visiting Scholar at the Hoover Institution in 2000" 2001, and fellow at the Center for Advanced Study in Behavioral Sciences in 1993"94. She is the recipient of a Faculty Award for Women Scientists and Engineers from the National Science Foundation as well as faculty fellowships from the John M. Olin Foundation and Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. She has served on the Board of Editors of the American Economic Review and the Journal of Industrial Economics and as associate editor for several journals. Rose has been on the American Economic Association Executive Committee, the Board of the AEA's Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession, and on program committees for the AEA and the Econometric Society annual meetings. She serves as an independent director for CRA International and Sentinel Investments Funds. Host(s): Office of the President, MIT150 Inventional Wisdom

Energy and Emissions Logging in Road Vehicles

Tue, 30 Nov 2010 05:00:00 GMT

11/30/2010 4:00 PM 3"270Sanjay Sarma, Professor, Department of Mechanical EngineeringDescription: Soon, after checking under the hood and kicking the tires, we will be scanning our car's on"board diagnostic system (OBD). Sanjay Sarma has been investigating ways to take advantage of a car's sensor bus, the module that records and conveys information about the vehicle's components and systems. Sarma hopes to make the OBD increasingly useful and essential to consumers concerned about their fuel consumption and carbon footprint. Car companies have been "cagey" and even "opaque" about the information bus that now comes standard in most cars, but auto enthusiasts have long known how to tap into this system for information on a car's vitals. Sarma, a mechanical engineer comfortable tinkering with car systems, wondered if he could devise a way to gather a continuous stream of data on fuel consumption from OBD, and then come up with accessible and informative metrics for the data. As the internal combustion engine figures less in the future of cars, and batteries and electric motors more, says Sarma, "logging in and learning from this datawill be a bigger and bigger deal." With a small team of researchers, Sarma conducted hundreds of miles of driving tests in urban and highway settings, micrologging vehicle fuel consumption. They first analyzed the effects of traffic congestion, which demonstrated that traveling slowly did not diminish fuel consumption, because in real life, accelerating and braking frequently wastes energy. They figured out a sampling rate ideal for harvesting an adequate stream of information and avoiding a sea of data, and a way of separating idling time from moving time fuel consumption. Ultimately, Sarma's team came up with "simple kinematic measures" for "flogging" (fuel logging) that could apply to cars of all stripes -- high"performance gas guzzlers, or the latest battery"powered inventions. Sarma is enthusiastic about the possibility of using cell phones as an interface with a car's OBD. With GPS and accelerometers, cellphones could read out a "weather report of emissions," enabling drivers to determine in real time or historically what segments of a commute consume the most fuel. This information could be shared by other users across the internet. Beyond individual consumer applications, Sarma sees constructive use by public traffic authorities, which could detect fuel consumption/emissions hot spots and speed up long red lights, or even use data in "creative pricing for congestion." Concludes Sarma, "All sorts of things like this are inevitable." About the Speaker(s): Sanjay Sarma was instrumental in developing the technologies and standards underlying the commmercial RFID industry. He co"founded MIT's Auto"ID Center, and served as its chairman of research. He has taught at MIT since 1996, and received the Cecil and Ida Green Career Development Chair at MIT. He was named a MacVicar Faculty Fellow in 2008. Sarma has more than 50 publications in computational geometry, virtual reality, manufacturing, CAD, RFID, security and embedded computing. He received the National Science Foundation Career Award, and the New England Business and Technology Award, among others. Sarma is also co"founder of OATSystems, Inc. and serves as its technology advisor. Sarma received a bachelor's degree from the Indian Institute of Technology in 1989, a master's degree in Mechanical Engineering from Carnegie Mellon University in 1992, and a Ph.D. in Mechanical Engineering from the University of California,Berkeley, in 1995.Host(s): School of Engineering, Transportation@MIT

Report Card on President Obama: MIT Experts Assess President Obama on Afghanistan, Climate, and the Economy

Tue, 09 Nov 2010 05:00:00 GMT

11/09/2010 4:30 PM Bartos theaterRichard Samuels, Ph D, '80, Ford International Professor of Political Science, Director, Center for International Studies; Henry D. Jacoby, Professor of Management, MIT Sloan; Barry Posen, Ford International Professor of Political Science at MIT, Director Security Studies Program; Simon Johnson, Ronald A. Kurtz (1954) Professor of Entrepreneurship, Professor of Global Economics and Management, MIT Sloan School of ManagementDescription: President Obama scored abysmally on his mid"terms. A trio of MIT professors renders harsh judgment on the president half"way through his administration, and their assessments may leave listeners "weeping or depressed," in the words of moderator Richard Samuels. National security expert Barry Posen reviews the administration's strategy and implementation of the war in Afghanistan. This conflict was adopted by the president and many Democrats as "the right war" following the wrong"headed invasion of Iraq, says Posen. But after investing tens of thousands more troops, and nearly $100 billion a year in Afghanistan, there remains uncertainty about how to complete the mission: to clear out the Taliban, secure critical regions, and build up a successful Afghan police force and government. While the Pentagon seems to support an "open"ended project aimed at defeating the Taliban," the president appears intent on limiting the venture, with the aim of drawing down troops beginning in July 2011. But Posen is skeptical of the overall project: Afghan politics are corrupt, rife with ethnic rivalries, and the administration is incompetent, so the idea of setting up a government "to compete with the Taliban probably won't work well." Though there are frequent reports of killing Taliban leaders, "many doubt the Taliban can be killed off as fast they regenerate," and there is little chance of serious negotiation with them. The creation of a functioning Afghanistan "looks like a costly, lengthy gamble," but the strategy is driven by politics, says Posen: "Democrats are quite concerned not to appear authors of defeat." The U.S. missed a vital opportunity to take the lead in addressing climate change, says Henry "Jake" Jacoby. Early on, the Obama administration "hurt prospects for progress," putting healthcare reform first when it had a choice between "the health of the people and the planet." And the administration didn't forcefully back either the House or Senate versions of climate legislation, which attempted to produce an "economically rational" approach to pricing greenhouse gas emissions. Then came the recession, which doomed any chance for moving climate legislation forward, since it "made imposing costs very difficult," says Jacoby. What troubles him more is that the Obama administration has essentially "given the pulpit over to people against any action, and deniers." Republicans seem to be winning the war of public opinion, claiming that measures against climate change will strangle the economy, and are now pressing to relieve the EPA of its power to regulate CO2. The "outlook is dark," says Jacoby. "The word carbon is not said in polite company, and won't be said in Washington." While it is a "terrific achievement" that we avoided another Great Depression, Simon Johnson is still "giving out failing grades" to this administration. Although Obama and his economic advisers basically got it right with the stimulus, they shockingly departed from best practices around banking policy, he believes. When major banks flounder, you close some of them down, fire managers, eliminate boards of directors, but "whatever you do, you cannot provide these banks with an unconditional bailout," he says. Rewarding banks for bad behavior is plain shocking and leaves us in "a very awkward and unpleasant position." By making banks too big to fail and sidestepping tough financial reform, he says, recovered banks will fight all the harder against any effort to be reined in. "By building implicit subsidy schemes into the structures in which banks survive," we are stuck with "a few banks with excessive power," and the "administration is responsible for setting us up for serious trouble down the road." About the Speaker(s): Richard J. Samuels is also the Founding Director of the MIT Japan Program. In 2001 he became Chairman of the Japan"US Friendship Commission, an independent Federal grant"making agency that supports Japanese studies and policy"oriented research in the United States. In 2005 he was elected a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. Samuels served as Head of the MIT Department of Political Science between 1992"1997 and as Vice"Chairman of the Committee on Japan of the National Research Council until 1996. Grants from the Fulbright Commission, the Abe Fellowship Fund, the National Science Foundation, and the Smith Richardson Foundation have supported nine years of field research in Japan. Samuels' next book, Securing Japan, will be published in 2007 by Cornell University Press. His previous books include Machiavelli's Children: Leaders and Their Legacies in Italy and Japan, a comparative political and economic history of political leadership in Italy and Japan,and "Rich Nation, Strong Army": National Security and the Technological Transformation of Japan,and The Business of the Japanese State: Energy Markets in Comparative and Historical Perspective. His articles have appeared in International Organization, Foreign Affairs, International Security, The Journal of Modern Italian Studies,and The Journal of Japanese Studies. Samuels received his Ph.D. from MIT in 1980.Host(s): School of Humanities, Arts & Social Sciences, Center for International Studies

Greenhouse Gases - MIT Professor David Simchi-Levi

Tue, 02 Nov 2010 19:06:29 GMT

David Simchi-Levi, a professor in MIT's Engineering Systems Division and Department of Civil Engineering, discusses lowering greenhouse emissions generated by humans.

The Energy/Climate-Change Challenge and the Role of Nuclear Energy in Meeting It

Mon, 25 Oct 2010 04:00:00 GMT

10/25/2010 4:00 PM Wong AuditoriumThe Honorable John P. Holdren, '65, SM '66, Director, Office of Science and Technology Policy, Executive Office of the PresidentDescription: In a meaty lecture that serves as a concise and comprehensive primer on the twin challenge of energy and environment, John Holdren lays out the difficult options for contending with a world rapidly overheating. "There is no question the world is growing hotter," says Holdren, "and we do have a pretty good handle on influences on climate that are changing the average temperature of the Earth," he says. Since the mid"19th century, there has been a 20"fold increase in the world's use of energy, the preponderance of which comes from burning fossil fuels. The U.S. is 82% dependent on these fuels, and the rest of the world is racing to catch up. If all nations continue business as usual, says Holdren, by 2030 energy use will increase by about 60% over 2005 levels, with fossil fuels comprising about 70% of world energy use. While there is legitimate concern about the economic, political and security risks of fossil fuel dependence, he says, CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions that result from fossil fuel combustion pose an immense, immediate threat to the planet. From urban and regional air pollution to massive wildfires and fierce storms that bring coastal inundation, dramatic climate disruption is upon us and demands action now. In order to avoid the biggest risks, such as a temperature increase of several degrees centigrade, we must "sharply change the ratio of energy used essentially immediately," Holdren says. But it would cost around $15 trillion to convert the world's fossil fuel dependent energy system into something less destructive, and this conversion would take too long, even if nations could agree on an alternative system. So we are confronted with striking a balance between mitigation and adaptation. Scientists think stabilizing CO2 emissions at 450 parts per million by 2030 might give humanity a shot at avoiding a planet with temperatures as high as those 30 million years ago (when crocodiles swam off Greenland and palm trees swayed in Wyoming). Looking to cut CO2 emissions drastically, the Obama Administration is intent on achieving changes in vehicle fuel efficiency, promoting public transportation and other measures. But realistically, adaptation must also come into play, including changes in agricultural practices, engineering defenses against rising coastal waters, and warding off tropical diseases. The longer we wait, says Holdren, the more expensive mitigation and adaptation become. The wrenching changes needed across the board to reach the ambitious goal of 450 ppm require "barrier"busting incentives," and cannot be accomplished without eliminating "perverse incentives" that encourage business as usual. Holdren believes carbon pricing is essential and inevitable, despite the current climate in Washington. Nuclear power has a critical role to play in this transformation -- including the elusive goal of fusion reactors -- but it must be part of a larger surge in R&D spending on new energy technology ($15 billion versus the current $4 billion per year). The political will to meet this challenge remains a sticking point, and so scientists must do a better job explaining climate change to people, says Holdren. Since there is no silver bullet for the problem, he concludes, "we have got to do it all. If you look at the magnitude of the challenge and the amount by which we must reduce the ratio of greenhouse gas emissions to useful energy supplied to the economy, we can leave no stone unturned, and that's what we're trying to get done." About the Speaker(s): John P. Holdren, President Obama's "Science Czar," previously served as Teresa and John Heinz Professor of Environmental Policy and Director of the Program on Science, Technology, and Public Policy at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government, as well as professor in Harvard's Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences and Director of the independent, nonprofit Woods Hole Research Center. From 1973 to 1996 he was on the faculty of the University of California, Berkeley, where he co"founded and co"led the interdisciplinary graduate"degree program in energy and resources. Holdren holds advanced degrees in aerospace engineering and theoretical plasma physics from MIT and Stanford and has specialized in energy technology and policy, global climate change, and nuclear arms control and nonproliferation. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, as well as foreign member of the Royal Society of London. A former president of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, his awards include a MacArthur Foundation Prize Fellowship, the John Heinz Prize in Public Policy, the Tyler Prize for Environmental Achievement, and the Volvo Environment Prize. He served from 1991 until 2005 as a member of the MacArthur Foundation's board of trustees.Host(s): School of Engineering, Nuclear Science and Engineering

Energy Innovation at Scale

Wed, 22 Sep 2010 04:00:00 GMT

09/22/2010 2:00 PM 32"123Steven E. Koonin, PhD '75, Undersecretary for Science, U.S. Department of EnergyDescription: The United States urgently needs a transformation of its energy supply both to address climate change and for reasons of energy security. To meet this immense challenge, the nation requires not just technological breakthroughs, but heavy lifting from big industry as well as government guidance, says Steven E. Koonin. In a mini"seminar covering the history and economics of energy supply and demand in the U.S., Koonin notes that the pace of change in information technology has set expectations around energy: "We get fooled about technological evolution because information technology evolved at a stunning rate over the last few decadesBut IT moves much faster than energy." Koonin notes that while the demand side of the energy equation is subject to swift change -- imposing tight energy standards on appliances and autos, for instance, can force rapid shifts in consumer behavior -- the supply side is another matter altogether. Barriers exist to the swift evolution of our energy supply: the large and complex scale of power sources; the ubiquity of energy, and competing interests of producers; the power of incumbents, which slows the market entry of new technologies; and the longevity of big energy facilities, which must be built to last decades. Cost emerges as a key factor: Nuclear power plants take billions to build. Generation costs alone for the nation's 600 coal power plants and 1,653 natural gas plants come to $25 billion per year. Currently, only the for"profit sector can take on projects demanding such massive capital, says Koonin, and "the U.S. energy system is almost entirely in the(ir) hands." He points out that the Department of Energy's annual budget is $25 billion. Industry players pursue a single goal, under the watchful eye of government regulators. The mission is "not to deploy the most innovative technologies nor the greenest technologies, but to make money" in a predictable way. Koonin believes that "energy supply innovation will scale only when profitable or mandated through regulation." He cites the swift growth in wind capacity when the U.S. offered a production tax credit. Since "risk return is the heart of business," big energy projects must be bolstered by consistent government policy, with "longtime horizons". Beyond mitigating industry risk, government can also encourage "early movers" in new technologies -- leveraging the R&D capabilities of national laboratories to help with simulations, and offering "full"scale testbeds." Government should also establish renewable power standards, and make loan guarantees for risky projects. Koonin concludes that the "energy supply business is not simple," and the "people in it are not troglodytes, but in there to optimize things _ that's their job." About the Speaker(s): Steven E. Koonin was nominated to his current post in March 2009. Previously, Koonin served as chief scientist at BP, after three decades serving on the Faculty and as Provost at the California Institute of Technology. Among Koonin's responsibilities at BP was formulating the company's long"term technology strategy. Koonin received his B.S. in Physics in 1972 at Caltech and his Ph.D. in Theoretical Physics in 1975 at MIT, after which he joined the Caltech faculty. His research interests have included global environmental science, nuclear astrophysics and theoretical nuclear, many"body, and computational physics. In 1998, he received the E.O. Lawrence Award in Physics from the Department of Energy (DOE).Host(s): School of Engineering, Department of Chemical Engineering

The Future of Natural Gas - Interim Report Briefing

Tue, 29 Jun 2010 11:57:02 GMT

Natural gas has moved to the center of the current debate on energy, security, and climate. The MIT Study on the Future of Natural Gas has examined the role of gas in a carbon-constrained world, with a topic horizon out to mid-century. On June 25, 2010 at the National Press Club in Washington, DC, the study co-chairs - Professor Henry Jacoby, co-chair of the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Mr. Tony Meggs, MIT Visiting Engineer, and Professor Ernest J. Moniz, Director of the MIT Energy Initiative (MITEI) - released an interim report, and discussed and answered questions about its findings and recommendations.

Lunch with a Laureate: Eric Chivian

Thu, 29 Apr 2010 04:00:00 GMT

In 1978, in his last years of residency in psychiatry at Mass General Hospital, Eric Chivian decided to do something bold.

Environmental Impacts of Aviation

Tue, 13 Apr 2010 04:00:00 GMT

04/13/2010 4:00 PM 3"270Dr. Ian A. Waitz, Jerome C. Hunsaker Professor and Department Head, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, MIT Description: Knowing more about the environmental impacts of aviation is increasingly essential, but according to Ian Waitz, it is also an area where uncertainties abound. One thing we know for sure is that the airplanes developed today will be flying for next 30 years, as the fleet dynamics are very stable, due to the extraordinary costs and lead"time to design and build. Meanwhile, an increasingly affluent population will travel more, and more of that travel will take place on today's airplanes. Waitz and his students have been developing state"of"the art modeling impacts, and advising the Federal Aviation Agency (FAA). He characterizes the environmental impacts of aviation into three broad categories. The most omnipotent impact, noise pollution, is associated with quality"of "life issues, health, and property loss. Waitz observes that noise pollution is observed by the public, typically at levels of 55 to 70 decibels. It is estimated to cost about half a billion dollars in property losses within the United States. The aviation industry is able to mitigate some of this burden on homeowners from a dedicated tax on ticket revenue. A second environmental impact results from gaseous pollutants that interact in the atmosphere, or more generically, "atmospheric chemistry and physics". Unfortunately, the state"of"the "art has two known limitations: first, measurements are taken in conditions under 3000 feet, which is beneath airplane cruising levels. Second, long downwind effects of the pollutants are relatively unanalyzed, for example, down"winds that travel from Europe towards the East. The third environmental impact, perhaps the best debated one, centers on global climate change. Waitz points out that there are many counterbalancing effects; for example, ozone creation may be a warming effect in the Northern Hemisphere but methane is a cooling effect globally. Scientists know that the largest non CO2 effects are created by contrails from aircraft that recombine as cirrus clouds. Yet, these clouds might either trap heat, or reflect it. To date, government regulation of the airplane fleet has focused on reducing NOx, Even that is complicated, since more efficient fuels and engines can create more NOx. The FAA has strict guidelines to ratchet"down, over time, NOx produced by aircraft take"offs and landings. Waitz walks through the many projections, scenarios, and Monte Carlo simulations that underlie the government policy. He notes that whether or not there is complete information, decisions continue to be made, engine and fuel standards are set, and the environmental burden of aviation will continue to increase. Host(s): School of Engineering, Transportation@MIT

Transportation, the Built Environment and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Developing Cities

Tue, 06 Apr 2010 04:00:00 GMT

04/06/2010 4:00 PM 3"270Chris Zegras, Ford Career Development Assistant Professor of Transportation and Urban Planning, MITDescription: It seems that income and travel are inextricably linked. As communities gain wealth and prosperity, their travel footprint increases. While this relationship affords benefits to those in developed nations, it is not scalable. Global population is projected to increase by nearly 2 billion people by 2030. If this newly added population drove just 3,000 kilometers a year, they would emit more tonnes of C02 annually, more than all the countries of Latin America emit today. "The world simply cannot afford to add another Latin America", says Chris Zegras. Zegras observes that fundamentally, people do not desire travel . they wish to have accessibility. Travel is a derived demand, prompted by our activities. If we could make better use of telecommunications, or, if our cities were more compact, perhaps we would find less need for vehicle trips. This is not a new concept for Americans. Nearly 100 years ago, planners envisioned "garden cities" where urban space could be better designed to promote community and neighborhood. Zegras and his students are modeling the trajectory of travel and growth in the developing world" primarily Asia and South America. In Santiago, Chile there has been a large growth of the middle class, accompanied, not surprisingly by an increase in automobile ownership. However, vehicle ownership and rising income are only part of the explanation. The research has noted that distance to the Central Business District, and proximity to Santiago's Metro system are also important factors. Neither urban density nor income entirely explains the picture of travel behavior. In Jinan, China the research team has compared travel in four distinctly different types of neighborhoods, and conducted a survey with 9 areas and 300 households per district. Counter intuitively, the data shows vehicle trips are more prevalent in higher density. These are new style developments consisting of very tall residential superblocks. In fact, looking at total energy consumption, the superblocks use more mega joules of energy than households in more traditional or older Chinese neighborhoods. At the end of the day, Zegras notes that there is a complex, and perhaps reflexive mechanism between the built environment and travel. The built environment may simply not provide enough accessibility to get us to a different standard, and behaviorally, people may cling to their implicit "travel time budgets". If they are able to reduce their daily travel on the one hand, might they then accumulate the savings, so to speak, and take one longer, leisure trip at month"end on an airplane? Measuring the carbon footprint of transportation within the built environment is difficult and there is "leakage". If we save in one area, we might spend in another. About the Speaker(s): Chris Zegras teaches graduate"level courses in urban transportation planning, statistics, and land use"transportation planning in the Department of Urban Studies at MIT, where he has also co"taught urban design and planning studios and Practica in Beijing, Santiago de Chile, and Mexico City. He currently serves as the MIT Lead for the MIT"Portugal Program Transportation Systems Focus Area. He is also a member of the Campus Energy Task Force of the MIT Energy Initiative. Zegras previously worked as a Research Associate at MIT's Laboratory for Energy & the Environment. He also spent 6 years with the International Institute for Energy Conservation (IIEC) in Washington, DC and Santiago de Chile. He has consulted widely on transportation, land development, environment, and finance, including for the International Energy Agency, the Government of Peru, the World Bank, the U.S., Canadian, and German overseas development agencies, and the World Business Council for Sustainable Development. Zegras holds a BA in Economics and Spanish from Tufts University, and the Master in City Planning, the Master of Science in Transportation, and the Ph.D. in Urban and Regional Planning from MIT Host(s): School of Engineering, Transportation@MIT

Where the Rubber Meets the Road: Why Chemomechanical Design of Materials is Critical to Sustainable Transportation Infrastructure

Tue, 30 Mar 2010 04:00:00 GMT

03/30/2010 4:00 PM 3"270Krystyn Van Vliet, Ph.D. '02, Associate Professor, Department of Materials Science and EngineeringDescription: Our conversations on sustainable transportation typically begin with a review of vehicle efficiencies, and end with the characteristics of fuel, energy sources, and life cycle. In a remarkably novel approach to sustainable transportation, Krystyn Van Vliet discusses how other things matter too" namely the materials we build our bridges from, the infrastructure of the road, and of course, the tires we drive on. They are all parts of the sustainable equation. For the U.S. to achieve the reductions in C02 consistent with the 2050 Kyoto protocols, a substantial portion of that must be made by reducing the CO2 from the construction of highways and bridges. Vliet tell us that traditionally, materials used to build transportation infrastructures are high volume ones that are critical for their performance, but also for human life" they are grossly overdesigned in case of failure. Once the materials are proven and accepted" there is a long road to changing them" not unlike the road of the FDA approving a new drug. Van Vliet adds: " Since the materials are used in such large volumes why has there been relatively so little innovation in them? The main reason is that the materials are inexpensive. Because of their low cost, cost is not a strong driving factor." But, she says, "New approaches over the past few years allow us to innovate at the level of the nanoscale and provide high impact change". Beginning with rubber" which is used not only in tires" but also in seals, train bearings, and many other transportation components" Van Vliet demonstrates how the tools of nanoscience can be applied to discover rubber's macroscopic properties and map its polymer" particle matrix . Visual Information based on mechanical imaging of rubber at the nanoscale level reveals entirely new understanding. This understanding, in turn, can be used to fine tune the mechanical properties of rubber; for example, to produce it with different fillers, change the thickness of the materials, and its glass transition temperature points. Patents harnessing these innovations are underway. The case of cement is even more compelling, and like the rubber in tires, there has not been, until recently a lot of innovation around this material. Van Vliet describes it as the "utility of modeling such an old, dirty and not very interesting materials with a lot of atomistic power to make an interesting difference." The "DNA" of this material, reveled through nanotechnology, is suggesting entirely new ways of thinking about it. Cement is made up of three simple materials" calcium oxide, silica, and water. They mix to create what scientists call a gel. The pre"production process of calcination, and producing calcium oxide is the source of C02 emissions some sources estimate that as much as one ton of cement produces one ton of C02 emissions. Global emissions the from calcium oxide accelerate as India and China rapidly expand their infrastructure with concrete buildings and roadways. In both lab tests and simulations, Van Vliet and her colleagues have shown that it is possible to use less cement-- by achieving higher efficiency, and to mix the cement composition with other compounds. And, a "pie in sky" concept which could happen, is to infuse the cement with titanium dioxide, which would break down and scrub the air of gasoline emissions, and return a healthier, cleaner air. Host(s): School of Engineering, Transportation@MIT

Sustainable Accessibility: A Grand Challenge for the World and for MIT

Tue, 09 Feb 2010 05:00:00 GMT

02/09/2010 4:00 PM 3"270John Sterman, PhD '82, Forrester Professor of Management and Engineering Systems, and; Director, System Dynamics Group, MIT Description: Transportation systems, as we know them today, will simply not sustain the worlds' growing population. Imagine a projected population of nine billion individuals. If this future population had mobility patterns like drivers in the United States, there would be a staggering 7.6 billion motor vehicles, using 440 million barrels of oil and producing 62 billion tons of CO2 per year. John Sterman says it is self"evident that our current transportation model simply will not scale. But, since the gross world product (GWP) is growing at 3.2% annually, and doubles every twenty years, our current model of development is an overture for environmental disaster. It is clear to Sterman that we need to think differently about the problem. People need access to goods, services, people, and opportunities. This access is what traditional forms of transportation provide. We also need to see transportation in its complexity, and expect that our planning efforts will have totally unintended, unexpected "rebound" effects. Sterman provides two examples of these rebound effects. The first examines the relationship between reducing traffic congestion and mass transit. Traditionally, the solution to traffic congestion has been one of supply and demand, and new roads are built to accommodate the increase in vehicle traffic. But, notes Sterman, augmenting road capacity just does not work: When new capacity is added, new vehicle trips, or longer ones, are encouraged. These trips quickly fill up the new road capacity, which produces a spiral of more severe traffic congestion. Meanwhile, some portion of these new auto trips come at the expense of public transit, which, upon losing riders, then reacts by either cutting service, or increasing fares. This downward spiral of public transit has a feedback loop which increases the attractiveness of driving. Sterman observes that planning is chaotic if we don't pay attention to these feedback loops and really think through what it is people want to achieve. A different, but equally complex set of feedback loops, has been the undoing of the alternative fuels industry. Over a thirty"year horizon, three countries, namely Brazil, New Zealand, and Argentina each developed a national policy and provided incentives to reduce their dependence on foreign oil. Unfortunately, none of their fuel programs grew large enough to achieve sufficient scale economies. Sterman characterizes these new starts as "sizzle and fizzle". He cautions us from repeating their mistakes as a current initiative gets underway to develop a hydrogen vehicle and fueling network in California. Having volume and scale will help us go down the learning curve, and we also need to bring many groups into the problem solving" these include vehicle manufacturers, fuel retailers, suppliers, and consumers. But, technology alone will not solve the problem. Sterman says we should prepare for the counter"intuitive lessons of transportation, and recognize that we will achieve better results if we make driving less attractive. Host(s): School of Engineering, Transportation@MIT

The Road from Copenhagen

Fri, 05 Feb 2010 05:00:00 GMT

Following the United Nations Climate Change Conference held in December 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark, a five-member panel reviews the pros and cons of the events that took place.

Carbon and Energy Efficient Supply Chains

Tue, 27 Oct 2009 04:00:00 GMT

10/27/2009 4:00 PM 32"124Edgar Blanco, Research Director at the MIT Center for Transportation & LogisticsDescription: Consumers will soon be able to quantify the carbon footprint of products they consume, and that could begin to change consumer behavior. The common banana you buy, say organic or not, is probably labeled by the country or origin. Increasingly, you might see a second sticker adorning your beloved yellow fruit _ it will be a tally of the banana's total carbon emissions as it moved from farm to table. That single number is not a simple one. If the bananas you bought this week were transported from Indonesia by boat__they have a different carbon footprint than the bunch you consumed last month grown, say in Mexico, and moved by rail. Behind this labeling system are a complex supply chain, logistics, and transportation considerations. And behind the measurement of this network is the research of Edgar Blanco and his colleagues at MIT. He begins with a consumer perspective. Beginning in 2006, in reaction to climate change, consumers, many large companies and the media wanted to assess the full environmental impact of finished products, be they bananas, potato chips, or cars. Blanco compares the measurement of the carbon trail for consumer goods to, "developing a really large map of what happens behind the product". He challenges, " If you have a number (of how much emissions a product creates), what should you do about it?... Partially, the exercise gives consumer information, but it is also vital so that you have information about emissions, so you can do something about redesigning the supply chain." The measurement of the carbon trail is vastly complex, and goes well beyond knowing the CO2 emissions produced by the transport sector. In one exercise, the research team compared the carbon footprint of bottled water manufactured and shipped in the U.S. versus bottled water originating in Fiji but sold in the U.S. The product imported from Fiji turned out to have a lower carbon footprint. Despite the 4,800 miles of ocean transport, the thermal/solar/wind energy used by the Pacific Islands plant was cleaner than the U.S. plant manufacturing relying on energy from fossil fuels. In 2001, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began to explore a measuring system to help mitigate pollution from U.S. shippers and carriers. For trucks the task was daunting because there were more than three million vehicles and 800,000 separate carriers involved. However, it was also important because trucks move close to 70% of all U.S. freight and therefore remain a growing contributor of greenhouse gases. Blanco's research on supply chains and CO2 emissions helped the EPA act a broker between shippers and carriers. In 2004 the EPA launched a program called "Smart Way" with 100 firms. Today it has grown to more than 1,200 partners. The EPA hopes that as more shippers and carriers join "Smart Way" there will be positive network effects. And, importantly, system models show that a ton of CO2 reduced by the Smart Way program is a less expensive option than other carbon trading schemes. Smart Way is also among consumer programs that have helped develop a carbon labeling system. Blanco says the carbon and energy efficient supply chain analysis develops tools so that shippers have the ability to better select carriers. In a global world, in which many partners operate using many alternative routes and multiple location points, a single number is a singular achievement. These research methods are now being diffused internationally. Depending on the societal importance consumers place on C02 and the amount they will pay to reduce it, the models have the potential to change how and what banana reaches your breakfast table, as well as everything else. About the Speaker(s): Research Director, MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics Executive Director, MIT SCALE Latin America Edgar Blanco is a Research Director at the MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics and is the Executive Director of the MIT SCALE Network in Latin America. His current research focus is the design of environmentally efficient supply chains. He also leads research initiatives on supply chain innovations in emerging markets, disruptive mobile technologies in value chains and optimization of humanitarian operations. Dr. Blanco has more than thirteen years of experience in designing and improving logistics and supply chain systems, including the application of operations research techniques, statistical methods, GIS technologies and software solutions to deliver significant savings in business operations. Prior to joining MIT, he was leading the Inventory Optimization practice at Retek (now Oracle Retail). He received his Ph.D. from the School of Industrial and Systems Engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology. His educational background includes a B.S. and M.S. in Industrial Engineering from Universidad de los Andes (Bogot^, Colombia) and a M.S. in Operations Research from the Georgia Institute of Technology.Host(s): School of Engineering, Transportation@MIT

Transportation Policy: Thinking Globally, Acting Locally and Walking the Talk

Tue, 20 Oct 2009 04:00:00 GMT

10/20/2009 4:00 PM 32"124Frederick P. Salvucci, '61, SM '62, Senior Lecturer, Center for Transportation and Logistics, MITDescription: Why do so many sustainable transportation programs turn out, like the Alice in the Wonderland parable to lead us down unexpected paths? Fred Salvucci observes that true sustainable transport requires making more than short"term fixes. A sustainable transportation program is built upon the pyramid of three "E"s: equity, environmental benefit, and economics. Maximizing on just one of these objectives imbalances the others, and leads to unintended and undesirable results. As a case in point, Salvucci notes that improvements in sustainable transportation can be made by either "fixing the automobile", or by "fixing the system." The "fixes" have included the mandate for improvement in CAFE standards, nationwide interest in adopting a California car standard, and the Cash for Clunkers program. These are all short"term responses as car ownership, and vehicle miles traveled continue to grow. Salvucci views public transport as a longer"term solution, and says that the government, universities, and other large employers have an important role in terms of turning the coin and incentivizing preferred modes of transport. He suggests that government policy and tax policies need to be aligned. He notes that transit resources need to be spread out widely and not benefit just a single region or provider. The early building of the National Highway System, a federal program that touched every state, received widespread support. Building a consensus for public transit and sustainable transportation policy is possible, just as it is "possible to sail against the wind". The state of Massachusetts and Boston, in particular, have shown this political leadership as Boston has managed to grow economically despite forgoing new above"ground freeways. A new initiative now exists in Boston, over the next five to 10 years, as all of the major bridges across the Charles River" with the exception of one" must undergo safety repairs. There will be an estimated 20% reduction in vehicle capacity, and together these bridges carry more traffic than the Central Artery. Salvucci urged planners at MIT to think of the Charles River Crossing project as a "pattern break-- an opportunity to demonstrate more sustainable transport modes in the face of the vehicle reduction. Boston and the MIT community have a new opportunity to undo the deeply embedded use of automobiles, provided we really believe, and wish to follow, the objectives of sustainable transportation. Host(s): School of Engineering, Transportation@MIT

Opportunities for Reducing U.S. Transportation's Petroleum Usage and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Tue, 22 Sep 2009 04:00:00 GMT

09/22/2009 4:00 PM 32"124John Heywood, SM '62, PhD '65, Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical EngineeringDescription: While the U.S. has set formidable goals around cutting oil consumption and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, these will likely remain out of reach as long as we continue our romance with big, powerful cars, says John Heywood. This unshakeable passion, alongside the well"established habit of petroleum use, and the expanding consumption of private vehicles in developing nations, foretells a major crisis in sustainable mobility. Although we've known for years this was coming, says Heywood, "We seem to be stuck." He is leading efforts at MIT to develop strategies for moving forward -- identifying the "grand challenges and opportunities" that might bring real transformation to our transportation system. Heywood presents data illustrating different angles of our current fix. For instance, there's the "horrendous problem" of growth of light duty passenger vehicles, accompanied by even faster"growing freight and air transportation, emitting ever more CO2 between now and 2050. In the same timeframe, the U.S. contemplates tightening fuel consumption standards in order to lower transportation"based greenhouse gas emissions drastically (e.g., by 70"80%). But these targets don't seem viable given the kinds of cars on the road now, and on the drawing board. The mix of more efficient gas engines, hybrids, plug"in hybrids, or all"electric vehicles, Heywood suggests, are unlikely to yield the kind of dramatic reduction in fuel use we're aiming for. This is largely because "in the U.S., people don't like light" vehicles, and prefer "ever greater acceleration performance." The sad fact is that "in the last 25 years, vehicles have become more efficient, while fuel economy has not really changed. Big vehicles are about as efficient as small, but percentage"wise, we consume more fuel." Heywood argues that greener transportation will only come if we consumers "moderate our expectations." But "behavioral change is tough stuff." The best we can do, Heywood projects, is a slowly evolving passenger fleet: a mix of car technologies that achieve several percentage points' reduction in fuel consumption per year. Alternative fuels such as cellulosic ethanol or fuel from tar sands may play a role in displacing petroleum and reducing emissions. By 2025, perhaps half our new vehicles will have different engines. To encourage even these slender changes, Heywood recommends continuing the US CAFE requirements beyond 2020; imposing a "feebate" system where people who buy low fuel"consuming cars get a rebate, and those who buy gas guzzlers pay a tax; better management of transportation infrastructure; increasing federal fuel taxes a dime a year for a decade; and developing national strategic policy around alternative fuels. About the Speaker(s): John Heywood has authored or co"authored 171 publications in journals and conference proceedings, in such areas as automotive technology; energy and transportation, air pollution and combustion. He started at MIT in 1968 and became director of the Sloan Automotive Laboratory in 1972. He was co"director of the Leaders for Manufacturing Program from 1991"1993. He was appointed co"director of the Ford"MIT Alliance in 2003. He received a B.A. from Cambridge University and a Ph.D. from MIT. He is a member of the National Academy of engineering and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences.Host(s): School of Engineering, Transportation@MIT

Severin Borenstein: Meeting US Energy and Climate Challenges with Rational Policy

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:20:41 GMT

This talk was given on May 5, 2009 as part of the MITEI Seminar Series - Abstract - As US energy challenges mount, the public and political debate continues to demonstrate disturbing misunderstandings of both the problems and potential solutions. The US faces three distinct energy challenges: maintaining moderate energy costs in order to benefit the economy, controlling greenhouse gases and other environmental damage from energy use, and reducing the geopolitical consequences of dependence on crude oil. Though some policies help to address all three challenges, often tackling one of these problems exacerbates the others. Borenstein will discuss the logic and fallacies behind government energy policies, from taxes (implicit or explicit) on greenhouse gas emissions, to tax incentives for domestic oil exploration, to support for energy efficiency improvements or basic energy science research. The energy challenges that the US faces are serious, but by adhering to a few basic economic principles, the cost of meeting these challenges can be kept manageable. - About the Speaker - Severin Borenstein is E.T. Grether Professor of Business Administration and Public Policy at the Haas School of Business and Director of the University of California Energy Institute, where he is also co-Director of the Institute's Center for the Study of Energy Markets. He received his A.B. from U.C. Berkeley in 1978 and Ph.D. in Economics from M.I.T. in 1983. His research focuses on business competition, strategy, and regulation. He has published extensively on the airline industry, the oil and gasoline industries, and electricity markets. His current research projects include empirical and theoretical work on competition in gasoline markets; market power and pricing issues in restructured electricity markets; strategic pricing and financial distress in the airline industry; and the incentives of firms to cut costs and improve efficiency. We thank CERA for its ongoing sponsorship of the Series.

Climate Change in a Changing World: Meeting the Needs of Humanity and the Planet

Wed, 22 Apr 2009 04:00:00 GMT

04/22/2009 7:00 PM Simmons HallSteven Hamburg, Chief Scientist, Environmental Defense FundDescription: The "dominant story of the next century" will be one of either gloom or redemption, says Steven Hamburg, depending on how humanity chooses to address climate change. To date, Earth's inhabitants have not meaningfully acknowledged this choice. Yet Hamburg retains a streak of optimism, based on his belief that bringing the impact of climate change home to individuals may stimulate a constructive response. First Hamburg sketches the dire facts: the planet is headed toward at least a 2 degree Celsius increase in temperature in coming decades, with consequences likely to include shifts in crop production, coral reef decline, and rising sea levels that threaten delta populations with devastating storm surges. From Hamburg's perspective, there's no serious argument that humans are major drivers of this rapid change, which is already negatively affecting many regions of the world. While affluent societies may discuss adaptation, it's already clear that "the losers are those people living on a dollar a day, with no capital." So "the question for each of us is how much change is too much change? How much can we tolerate?" Hamburg's first climate change paper in 1988, which focused on a subject he knows intimately, the ecology of New Hampshire's White Mountains, was met with "total silence." He worries that scientists are still conducting climate change research in a kind of void, with most people relatively oblivious to an unfolding cataclysm. "It's that dissonance that's a challenge for us as a society," he says. As a result, he's working with groups that attempt to communicate how climate change affects the "places we live in and care about." For instance, in Hamburg's White Mountain territory, climate change has led to a much shorter winter, and a pattern of winter warming and cooling that has decimated the once dominant red spruce forests, leaving maples to thrive (for the moment). People everywhere must be persuaded to become "agents of change." Hamburg recounts how the CEO of Walmart enlisted him to help the corporation become more sustainable, which led to the sale of millions of compact fluorescent bulbs (replacing incandescents), major profits, and massive savings in carbon emissions. Corporations are getting it, believes Hamburg (even Rupert Murdoch's chains are going green), seeing that "doing the right thing for society" can save money. But these moves must be accompanied by government regulations, in both developed and developing countries, which will require a "conversationto link impacts in our own worlds and lives, with actions we can take." About the Speaker(s): Steven P. Hamburg is an ecosystem ecologist specializing in the impacts of disturbance on forest structure and function. He came to Brown in 1995 after nine years at the University of Kansas, where he directed the Environmental Studies Program and served as Environmental Ombudsman. Today, Hamburg collaborates with 70 science institutions to create hands"on learning opportunities and exhibits for the public. He has published widely including in Nature and Science and has served as a lead author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Hamburg received his M.F.S. and Ph.D. (in Forest Ecology) from Yale University. He held a post"doctoral position at Stanford University and was a Bullard Fellow at Harvard University. At Brown he is the concentration advisor for the environmental science concentration and serves as Research Director of the Global Environment Program at the Watson Institute in International Studies.Host(s): Dean for Student Life, The Dalai Lama Center for Ethics and Transformative Values

Environmental Programs Meet Supply Chain at Staples

Mon, 16 Jun 2008 17:51:48 GMT

Mark Buckley, Staples, Inc. - Vice President, Environmental Affairs

Achieving the Energy-Efficient Supply Chain, Conference by MIT-CTL and CSCMP

The development of energy-efficient distribution centers is just one of the supply chain-related environmental programs underway at Staples. Mark Buckley explains how he collaborates with the supply chain to cut the retailer's carbon emissions and energy costs.

April 30, 2007, 0:46:05

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